In a new chart‑driven analysis, Lark Davis highlights a cluster of higher time-frame signals now turning in favor of alts.
Crypto analyst and YouTuber Lark Davis is pushing back against the growing belief that “altcoin season is never coming,” arguing that several higher‑timeframe indicators now point to at least a meaningful relief phase for non‑Bitcoin assets.
In his latest chart-heavy video, Davis skips the usual “everything pumps” narrative and focuses on structural signals: multi‑year trendline support on total crypto market cap, fresh bullish MACD crossovers on altcoin aggregates, and a potential turn in the ETH/BTC ratio that has historically preceded broader risk‑on behavior in altcoins.
Altcoin Complex Sits On Multi‑Year Support
Davis starts with the total crypto market cap (including Bitcoin) on the weekly chart, anchored to the December 26, 2022 bottom.
A single rising trend-line from that low has held for over two years; price is currently sitting exactly on it, around a total market cap near $2.7 trillion.
A break below, he says, would be “bad news in bears territory” but that hasn’t happened yet.
On the same chart, the weekly MACD is a few weeks away — by his estimate — from a bullish crossover. Previous identical shifts (May 2025, October 2024 in his notation) coincided with large market-wide rallies. Davis treats these MACD turns on total market cap as “major trend shift indicators,” not short‑term trading noise.
“Others vs. BTC” Turns Altcoins Oversold
More striking is the “Others vs BTC” chart: the market cap of all coins outside the top 10 versus Bitcoin, on the monthly time-frame.
The MACD there has just flipped to a bullish crossover at what he calls “historically oversold” levels.
The histogram shows only a tiny first green bar, but Davis notes that the last successful monthly bullish crossover on this ratio preceded an ~18‑month altcoin out-performance stretch from mid‑2020 into early 2022, with roughly 400% aggregate gains versus BTC.
A separate chart — total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins — offers a cleaner read on true altcoins.
On the weekly chart, that basket is also approaching a bullish MACD crossover, with RSI nudging back above its mid-line. Prior crossovers on this series produced very different outcomes depending on the cycle phase: +50%, +117%, and +218% rallies in bull conditions, but a failed signal and further 40% downside in the 2022 bear.
Davis is explicit: whether this setup works depends on whether the current environment is still an extended bull cycle or the start of a deeper breakdown.
ETH/BTC Pair As Crypto’s Risk Barometer
The final piece is ETH/BTC.
Lark Davis compares the current Ethereum/BTC ratio to the 2017-2019 pattern: a long, grinding decline followed by a final capitulation wick. The ratio recently bottomed near 0.017-0.018 BTC per ETH, similar to that prior cycle low at ~0.016.
Short‑term, ETH/BTC has broken a local downtrend since August and is retesting that breakout.
The key level, he argues, is around 0.04 BTC (roughly the prior range peak and near the 200‑week EMA). A sustained move above that area previously coincided with a run from 0.03 to 0.08 — effectively a regime shift in altcoin risk appetite.
If the 200‑week EMA is reclaimed again, Davis expects it could “be a pretty big move for ETH and a pretty big move for altcoins,” even if this cycle lacks the NFT‑driven mania that supercharged Ethereum last time.
The key message for investors: this is not an “everything will pump” call. It’s a claim that, across multiple higher time-frame charts, altcoins are shifting from extreme pessimism toward conditions that historically precede multi‑month relief or more.
The risk, as Davis repeatedly hints, is that if the broader trend-line on total market cap fails, these apparent reversals could prove to be classic bear‑market head fakes.
Delve into DailyCoin’s popular crypto news today:
TRU Token Collapses 100% After Truebit Protocol Exploit
ZEC Bounces 13% After Dev Team Exodus Turmoil
