Trend reversal may happen if 15% to 20% of altcoins move above their 200DMA.
Altcoins are posting a rare signal that has historically appeared during the lowest point of bear markets. The signal flashes when 95% of altcoins trade below their 200-day moving average.
Altcoins are depressed, and rumors abound that some assets may never return. The market is now in a historical range that has often coincided with the lowest point of bear markets. As of March 2026, 95% of altcoins are trading below their 200-day moving average. As Cryptopolitan reported earlier, the current altcoin trends are the result of selling pressure climbing to an all-time high.
In the past, this price range for altcoins has preceded recoveries and a return to altcoin markets. Additionally, altcoin lows can serve as a proxy for BTC sentiment. While the crypto market shows increased fear, there is also liquidity waiting on the sidelines. Blue-chip altcoins have also shown a historical ability to recover and even reach new highs.
The current altcoin moving average metric sank to the 2-5% range, meaning 98% – 95% of altcoins are below their 200-day moving average. The market can spend weeks or months in this range, and nothing guarantees a recovery.
Some altcoins are on a general downward spiral, with no significant returns to a higher range. However, historically, a BTC recovery led to an altcoin market, where a selection of assets still peaked above their 200DMA.
Altcoins are also pressured by factors like investor exhaustion, low leverage, and the lack of returns even for patient holders. However, for some assets, renewed accumulation may precede a recovery.
The sign of a trend reversal for altcoins is when around 15% to 20% of assets are breaking out above their 200DMA.
Historically, the local lows for altcoins were periods of silent accumulation in preparation for a full altcoin market. During this cycle, however, accumulation may not happen with high conviction, as some traders have switched to short-term risk markets, predictions, and meme tokens.
In 2025, a limited altcoin season occurred, mostly driven by ETH, SOL, and BNB, with the addition of privacy assets.
The altcoin season index inched up to 37 points, from a recent level of 35 points, still indicating BTC is leading.
BTC has now resettled above $67,000, while not being able to retain prices above the $70,000 range. The current BTC market is also struggling to attract a positive sentiment, as the coin has been pressured by liquidations.
Over 37% of altcoins are trading near their all-time lows, even for projects with real activity and fee generation. The state of altcoins is even worse compared to the FTX crash, and the market still waits to see which assets will remain in use and which ones will disappear.
While previous bear markets have caused expectations that altcoins would return, this time around, investors are even more cautious in allocating funds. Additionally, some are resorting to holding stablecoins and seeking passive income.
