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Recent market dynamics have seen Ethereum (ETH) at the forefront of a significant decline in the altcoin sector, pushing many top cryptocurrencies below crucial price levels.
Market expert CyrilXBT has taken to social media platform X (formerly Twitter) to unravel the factors contributing to this downturn and explore the potential for a recovery rally in 2026.
CyrilXBT began his analysis by addressing the role of Bitcoin (BTC) dominance in the market. When Bitcoin’s dominance increases, capital tends to concentrate within the asset rather than exiting the broader cryptocurrency market.
This indicates that Bitcoin becomes a refuge for investors seeking safety, while altcoins transform into sources of liquidity. As a result, risk compresses prior to any expansion, a pattern consistently observed in previous cycles before altcoins regain strength.
Another contributing factor to the current turmoil is tax-loss harvesting. Cryptocurrencies are one of the few major asset classes that have seen declines compared to January 1st, with equities and gold demonstrating gains.
To lock in losses before year-end, funds are actively selling off unprofitable altcoin positions, crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and other high-risk assets. CyrilXBT noted that this pressure would likely dissipate as the calendar turns to the new year.
The expert further highlighted that liquidity tends to work on a lagging basis. Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) has started to inject liquidity back into the system, markets typically do not react immediately.
Historically, improvements in liquidity occur first, followed by Bitcoin stabilizing, with altcoins lagging behind. Currently, the market remains in the lag phase, not yet experiencing the anticipated breakout.
With low volatility, stagnant Bitcoin prices, and declining altcoins, CyrilXBT asserts that it evokes memories of previous cycles, such as the early 2019 and early 2023 recoveries.
Overall, the drop in the altcoin market can be attributed to several interconnected factors: rising Bitcoin dominance, peak tax-loss selling, thin liquidity, exhausted demand, and the delayed effects of macro liquidity.
Instead of a capitulation scenario, the expert suggests that this moment appears to represent compression — a phase that frequently precedes significant recoveries.
