This cycle is shaping up very differently for altcoins compared to what we’ve seen in the past. Typically, about a year after the Bitcoin halving, altcoins begin to rally hard against their USD pairs, with the run generally continuing until Ethereum tops out — which usually happens in Q4 of post-halving years. However, this time around, altcoins have remained largely dormant. With the exception of the pre-election pump in 2024 — when retail traders prematurely priced in perfection without fully grasping what lay ahead — the altcoin market has barely moved.
To better visualize this, I’ve overlaid BTC Dominance (BTC.D) with the ratio of (TOTAL3 – USDT) to BTC. On that overlay, the 0.25 level stands out as a key historical marker. In previous cycles, once that 0.25 level was hit, BTC Dominance would peak and then drop rapidly, marking the beginning of the blow-off phase for altcoins. Ethereum and other major alts would then play catch-up, often resulting in massive upside. But as of now, we haven’t even touched that level, and BTC.D remains elevated.
This deviation from past patterns likely stems from growing institutional interest in Bitcoin. Unlike previous cycles, capital is not flowing into altcoins at the same rate. Bitcoin has increasingly positioned itself as an asset in its own league, attracting large-scale investors who are ignoring the broader crypto space. That institutional support is creating a clear separation between Bitcoin and the rest of the market.
I still believe we’ll eventually see an altcoin season, but it hasn’t happened yet. For that to occur, we need to see the 0.25 level on the TOTAL3/BTC chart get hit and for BTC pairs of altcoins to bottom. Only then will the conditions be right for altcoins to rally and for Ethereum to begin its catch-up phase. Until then, patience is critical.
