Raoul Pal warns traders that chasing late altcoin moves often leads to losses.
Altcoin season is being discussed again across crypto markets. Charts are moving, social posts are rising, and many expect a broad rally. But this cycle looks different. While some altcoins are outperforming, most are not.
The data shows select strength, not a market-wide move. This matters for how investors should think about altcoin season right now.
Altcoin season usually means altcoins rising together and doing better than the OG, BTC, in terms of ROI. That is not what the current data shows.
Recent charts comparing altcoin performance against Bitcoin show that only 8 out of 55 major altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin in the last 60 days. That is a small group and most altcoins are still down, even while Bitcoin trades sideways.
Two tokens stand out clearly. BAT is up around 25%, and CHZ is up close to 10% against Bitcoin in this period.
These moves show strength, but they are isolated. The majority of altcoins remain deep in negative returns. The Altcoin Season Index also confirms this.
This index tracks how many altcoins are beating Bitcoin. A high reading means broad altcoin strength.
A low reading means Bitcoin still dominates, which is also known by the metric Bitcoin dominance. Right now, the index remains low, even though it has stopped falling. That tells us altcoins are stabilizing, not breaking out together.
This is why calling it a full altcoin season is risky. The market is rewarding specific tokens, not the entire altcoin market.
Bitcoin dominance shows how much of the total crypto market value belongs to Bitcoin. When dominance is high, money stays concentrated in Bitcoin. When it falls, money spreads into altcoins.
At present, the BTC dominance still moves near 60%. Bitcoin dominance is still elevated. That means capital is not freely flowing into all altcoins. Instead, investors are being careful and selective.
Historical charts show that in past cycles, altcoin season usually started after Bitcoin had already made strong moves and then slowed down. Only then did capital rotate widely into altcoins.
This time, Bitcoin has moved, but capital rotation is uneven. Some altcoins are seeing early interest, but most are still lagging.
That explains why many traders are still unsure. They see strong charts on social media, but their own altcoin holdings are not moving.
This uneven setup is why experienced investors are cautious. One of them is Raoul Pal, a former hedge fund manager and the founder of Real Vision, a global macro and crypto research platform.
Raoul Pal has spent more than 35 years in financial markets. His focus is on long-term cycles, not short-term trading.
He has often warned that altcoin season is the phase where most retail investors lose money.
His reasoning is simple. During altcoin season, social media fills with posts showing fast gains. Many people rush in late, driven by fear of missing out. By the time they buy, the price move is already mature.
Raoul Pal still considers holding high-quality assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum instead of chasing short-term moves. However, he issues the biggest cycle warning here.
He positions himself and asks traders to remain strongly against using leverage. Especially in crypto, where prices move fast, and losses happen quickly.
In the current cycle, his warning is even more important. For context, it seems that the altseason is not broad but selective. Only certain tokens are moving, while most remain weak. This means patience matters more than speed.
The altseason may still develop further, but right now, the data shows a narrow move, not a market-wide one. For now, this is not the kind of altcoin season that lifts everything.
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