Cowen expects the market top in Q4, followed by a bear market with a less severe decline.
The crypto market is buzzing with talk of an altcoin season, but one prominent analyst says the true rally will only come after Ethereum hits a new all-time high.
According to renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, a genuine altcoin season, like those seen in late 2017 and 2021, depends on three key conditions. The first is for Ethereum to not just break its all-time high (ATH), but to sustain a durable price above it. The second is a decline in Bitcoin dominance. And the third is the emergence of clear signs of crypto market rotation.
Cowen emphasizes that Ethereum’s movement is the single most important factor for triggering a major altcoin season. He believes the current calls for an altcoin season are premature because Ethereum has yet to achieve a lasting ATH.
Cowen expects Ethereum might briefly push above the $5,000 mark but must “check back in” with its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) during a correction to build a robust rally.
Cowen also believes an altcoin season is unlikely in October. Historically, Bitcoin dominance has seen its biggest monthly increase in October, rising by an average of 5%. He says the market should only expect an altcoin season after Bitcoin dominance begins to decline and a clear rotation into altcoins begins.
Cowen also shared his outlook for the top of the current bull cycle. He explained that past cycles have tended to peak in the fourth quarter of the year following a halving, a pattern seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
This suggests that the current cycle’s peak will likely arrive in the fourth quarter of this year. In terms of days, the current rally is 1,041 days old, while the previous two cycles topped out at 1,059 and 1,067 days, respectively.
Cowen believes that a weekly price drop below Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average (SMA) could signal the end of the cycle. With the 50-week SMA currently at around $98,000, Cowen says he will remain optimistic as long as Bitcoin stays above that line.
Cowen expects the peak of the current bull run to arrive in the fourth quarter of this year, followed by a Bitcoin bear market in 2026.
However, he predicts the next downturn will be less extreme than previous bear markets, with a peak-to-trough decline of around 70%.
