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According to Wintermute’s 2025 Digital Asset OTC Markets report, altcoin rallies last year were much shorter than traders expected, averaging about 19-20 days. That is a steep drop from the roughly 60-day runs seen in 2024.
Market flows tightened, and many smaller tokens saw gains vanish faster than before. The result: capital moved back into the big names — Bitcoin and Ethereum — where liquidity is deeper.
Based on reports, one key trigger was a sharp deleveraging on October 10, 2025, which pushed retail traders to reduce risk and rotate out of smaller tokens.
Open interest in many altcoin futures contracts fell, with some coverage noting about a 55% decline in altcoin futures open interest since October.
Trading desks said lower liquidity made it harder for rallies to keep going beyond a few weeks, turning what used to be multi-month moves into short bursts.
Institutional flows and product structures played a role. Reports have disclosed that ETFs and other institutional channels helped funnel funds toward Bitcoin and Ethereum. As a result, the market’s attention narrowed.
Where narratives once pushed dozens of tokens into rallies, more capital was now concentrated in the top tier. Traders say they preferred assets where orders could be filled without dramatically moving the price.
Wintermute’s analysis points to a change in how momentum forms. Rally drivers became more tactical and less about broad, lasting narratives. In practice, that meant memecoin pumps and exchange-themed rallies burned out quickly.
Some traders described these moves as hair-trigger events: quick upswings followed by equally rapid retracements. Liquidity bands tightened and stops were hit sooner than in past cycles.
Market participants say the path to a sustained altcoin season now requires a few things aligning. Reports indicate renewed retail interest, clearer institutional support for smaller tokens, and calmer macro markets could help.
Otherwise, rallies are likely to remain short. Execution desks reported that when big buyers reappeared for a token, it could run fast, but keeping that momentum proved difficult without deeper market participation.
Based on the report and market commentary, a broader crypto rebound in 2026 depends on several moving parts: interest from institutions, shifts in macro rates, and retail returning to risk-on strategies.
If those elements arrive, rallies might last longer than the 19-20 day average seen in 2025. If not, traders say the pattern of quick, sharp moves into the majors will continue.
