Altcoins shed over $1 trillion in November as TOTAL3 collapsed and capital flowed into stablecoins, but several analysts argue the trend resembles late-stage bear conditions that typically precede a new expansion phase.
Throughout November, the altcoin market saw heavy outflows, with more than a trillion dollars evaporating from crypto valuations and reversing most of the gains built earlier in the year. Analysts have been closely watching TOTAL3 — the metric that tracks total crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins — to gauge how capital is shifting between sectors.
Analysts warn of weakness as $1T exits the altcoin market
According to the analyst known as “Stockmoney Lizards,” liquidity appears to be rotating into stablecoins rather than flowing back into Bitcoin or high-beta tokens. They described the pattern as familiar: Bitcoin weakness pushes investors into stablecoins, which eventually becomes the base for the next rotation into altcoins. For now, they believe the market is in a holding pattern as participants wait for a clearer reversal signal.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, argued that the recent downturn signals the end of an altcoin-specific bear market rather than the close of the broader crypto bull cycle. He pointed to historical business cycles to show when altcoins have typically staged major rallies and noted that the current environment differs sharply from the traditional four-year Web3 cycle, suggesting new dynamics are shaping market behavior this time around.
Analyst Sykodelic examined TOTAL3 charts and compared them to the previous market cycle, stating that current positioning resembles conditions that preceded previous altcoin expansion periods.
Many altcoins fell by 50% or more in November but have since staged modest rebounds. Bitcoin and Ethereum have also recovered part of their losses, while tokens such as Binance’s BNB, Hyperliquid, and Avalanche posted stronger gains. Overall crypto market capitalization has ticked higher, though it still sits below October levels.
Analyst Alex Wacy highlighted that several market indicators are signaling the potential for a major altcoin rally. However, Wacy cautioned that if current trends persist, the next substantial upswing in altcoins may not take shape until sometime next year.
