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“All eyes” will be watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday, August 22, for clues to what the central bank’s policymakers will do at their September meeting, after bitcoin suffered a pullback over the last few days, according to analyst Ryan Rabaglia.
The world’s largest digital currency by total market value dropped below $115,000 on Monday, August 18, after reaching a fresh, all-time high of more than $124,000 earlier this month, according to Coinbase data from TradingView.
“With some of the majors hitting all time highs or near highs, we saw a significant amount of profit taking that followed,” Rabaglia, general partner for hybrid liquid venture fund Rise Capital, said via email.
“Now that we’ve turned the page to this week, we do have a significant event that is the Jackson Hole Summit on the calendar, all eyes will be watching,” he continued, referring to the gathering that is scheduled to take place between August 21 and 23.
“At previous summits we have seen decisive action taken from the Fed Chair going as far as indicating interest rate raises and cuts, he’ll be expected to stand on one side of the fence or the other this time. This summit will be the precursor for actions to be taken in September, which are already heavily favoring a 25bps cut.”
Tom Bruni, editor-in-chief & VP of community at Stocktwits, also emphasized the key importance of the Fed chair’s speech, stating via email that “With traders and investors shifting their attention toward the September Fed meeting, this week’s Jackson Hole event has come front and center with all ears on Jerome Powell’s commentary.”
He stressed the wait-and-see mentality of market participants, indicating that “The inability of Bitcoin to sustain its recent upward rally has traders on standby, waiting for momentum to be re-established before getting involved.”
“If this week’s commentary suggests that a rate cut won’t be coming in September, downward pressure in Bitcoin could continue, with traders watching the 200-day moving average near $100k as the next major support level,” added Bruni.
Greg Magadini, director of derivatives for digital asset data provider Amberdata, also highlighted the key importance of the upcoming central bank gathering, indicating via emailed commentary that “The big headline event this week will be Powell’s Speech on Friday for the Jackson Hole meeting.”
“The Jackson Hole speech is likely going to be Powell’s last defense for Fed independence and he could use the speech as an opportunity to play ‘hardball’ against the Trump Admin’s pressure to cut rates.”
President Donald Trump has repeatedly mentioned the target range for the benchmark federal funds rate could be significantly lower. He has also commented on the possibility of replacing Powell before his term ends next year.
In addition to pointing out the key importance of Fed policy moves, analysts highlighted several other variables that bitcoin traders should monitor in the near future.
“On the macro side, Fed rate-cut expectations and inflation data remain critical drivers of risk appetite,” emphasized Joe DiPasquale, CEO of cryptocurrency hedge fund manager BitBull Capital.
“In crypto-specific developments, flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and signs of institutional allocation are still major catalysts,” he added. “On the technical front, $112K has emerged as initial support, while $120K-$125K is the resistance zone to clear before any push toward fresh highs.”
Brett Sifling, wealth manager for Gerber Kawasaki Wealth & Investment Management, highlighted the ongoing progress in the regulatory framework surrounding digital assets.
“I think it’s important for market participants to monitor the ongoing regulatory developments happening,” he stated via email. “Between the GENIUS Act, The CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act it’s clear that the government is focused on Bitcoin.”
Brian Huang, cofounder of fintech firm Glider, offered another angle, insisting that investors are rotating into altcoins.
“We’re seeing a clear rotation from BTC into ETH over the past couple weeks triggered by ETH ETF inflows and the emergence of new digital asset treasuries,” he stated. “They’re reverting back to historic levels, and BTC dominance is cooling after a 2-year tear.”
“What’s next? Keep an eye on Solana digital asset treasuries – growth here could once again dampen BTC price and dominance as traders rotate from BTC and ETH into SOL.”
