Economic and development experts, as well as psychologists have raised concerns over Nigeria’s soaring birth rate, warning that about 14 million births recorded within two years are piling pressure on an already fragile economy battling inflation, unemployment and food crisis.
Last week, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) said 14 million Nigerian children had their births officially registered in the past two years, marking significant progress in legal identity coverage.
UNICEF Country Representative, Wafaa Abdelatef, stated this during a courtesy visit to the First Lady, Oluremi Tinubu, at the State House, Abuja.
But a Professor of Economics and Development Studies, Olufemi Saibu, said the country’s rapid population growth, instead of translating into a demographic dividend, is fast becoming a demographic burden.
According to him, the surge in births is happening at a time the economy is struggling with high inflation, currency depreciation and weak job creation, thereby worsening poverty and unemployment.
Saibu noted that with more dependents per household, limited incomes are stretched further, pushing more families below the poverty line, adding that the labour market is unable to absorb the growing youth population, resulting in rising joblessness and underemployment.
On food security, the economist warned that Nigeria’s food system is under intense pressure as demand for staples such as rice, maize and cassava continues to rise, while supply remains constrained by insecurity, climate shocks and poor infrastructure.
Saibu further linked the population surge to rising insecurity, explaining that high youth unemployment combined with poverty creates fertile ground for criminal activities and social unrest.
As part of the solutions, the Professor called for aggressive job creation in manufacturing, services and agribusiness, as well as stronger support for small and medium enterprises through access to finance and training. He also advocated large-scale investment in agricultural mechanisation, irrigation and climate-smart farming to boost productivity, reduce food imports and stabilise prices.
Saibu further recommended integrating family planning into economic empowerment programmes rather than running it as a standalone campaign. According to him, promoting girls’ education, strengthening social protection systems and restoring security in rural areas would help reduce dependence on children as old-age security while unlocking agricultural potential.
He said: “Nigeria’s population is expanding rapidly at a time of economic fragility. We are dealing with high inflation, currency depreciation and weak job creation. Instead of becoming a demographic dividend, this rapid growth risks turning into a demographic burden that deepens poverty and unemployment.
“When you have more dependents per household without a corresponding increase in income, you stretch limited resources. Families are spending more on food, housing and education, while real wages are either stagnant or declining. This pushes more households below the poverty line.
“Our food systems are already under pressure. Demand for staples like rice, maize and cassava is increasing, but supply is constrained by insecurity, climate shocks and weak infrastructure. That is why food inflation remains persistently high, and it is the ordinary Nigerian that bears the brunt.
“Family planning campaigns alone will not solve the problem. Fertility choices are tied to economic realities. We must expand formal job creation, support SMEs, invest in mechanised and climate-smart agriculture, strengthen value chains and storage facilities, promote girls’ education and integrate population policy with economic reforms. That is how we can shift from a demographic burden to a demographic dividend.”
Also speaking, Development Expert, Dr Aliyu Ilias, said high birth rates in Nigeria are largely driven by cultural factors rather than purely economic considerations.
Ilias observed that while the elite tend to have fewer children, rural dwellers, especially in farming communities, often maintain larger families, sometimes through polygamous arrangements.
However, he projected that in the next 30 years, Nigeria could begin to witness a gradual shift towards an ageing society, as more young people delay marriage and become increasingly conscious of economic realities.
Despite the concerns, he maintained that a high birth rate could still be a blessing if properly harnessed.
According to him, “When you have a large population, it is expected that you will have more children. Giving birth in Nigeria is more of culture than economic life. Despite economic challenges, people continue to have children because it is deeply rooted in tradition.
“If you look at the elite, they do not have many children. But in the countryside, especially among farmers, many still marry more than one wife and raise large families. It is part of the social structure and belief system.
“Some people assume it is purely about poverty, but culture plays a very strong role. Children are often seen as a form of social investment and security for old age, particularly where formal pension systems and employment opportunities are weak.
“In the next 30 years, we may begin to see changes. Many young people today are delaying marriage and becoming more conscious of economic realities. If Nigeria can harness its youthful population properly through job creation and education, the high birth rate could become a blessing. But for now, we are not taking full advantage of it.”
Psychologists also weighed in on the matter. In an interview with Saturday Sun, David Nuhu, Clinical Psychologist, at the Crusade for Greater Nigeria and Rehabilitation Ltd, Kugbo, Abuja, said: “The most significant public policy in Nigeria is to reduce fertility in order to promote economic development. As the seventh most populous country in the world, Nigeria’s fertility rate remains at five children per woman in 2022, which is far above the global average.
“The proportional increase in birth rate across the country, especially in the northern parts, has geometrically increased in the last two to three years as observed by UNICEF.
“However, this is occurring as a result of some factors. Hence, if proactive measures are not taken to reduce fertility, the population may double and these could as a result poise social and economic implications to the development of the nation.
“Factors such as significant pressure on limited resource allocation, which might bring about scarcity and further regional conflict, infrastructure, e.g housing, access to health care, and education.
“For a nation to maintain a global fertility rate goal of 2.1%, it must be able to control its population problem. A relationship exists between contraceptive use and fertility.
This cuts across major northern traditional societies where their behaviours are largely influenced by cultural and religious tradition. This not only exacerbates population growth but puts great pressure on resources.
“With education, women either postpone marriage or delay childbearing. Also, access of women to working in areas of high skills due to competition and cultural attitude. There is indeed a great need to give women access to be more engaged through formulated government policies, thereby fostering and enhancing economic development.”
Also speaking on the issue, , Clinical Psychologist at the Lagos State Domestic and Sexual Violence Agency, said having such high birth rates in the country, especially in the North which tends to have more high birth ratio than the South, has its disadvantages.
His words: “The social implications of high fertility rate in the country range from overloaded strain on the educational system, healthcare system in terms of birth rate ratio per healthcare system availability as well as infrastructural abundance, as the federal character of the Republic of Nigeria allows for equal delegations of these social amenities in each region although considering the population of each which can as well cause socio-political tension as a result of more resource allocation to the Northern region which may affect national unity.
“Furthermore, because of their cultural way of life, which allows early marriages, the increase of childbirth is almost inevitable and this can cause, a Olopade Monsuru higher rate of poverty and malnutrition in children because of lack of access to essential services.
“With the large population already in the north, it could affect the pace of development whereby the population outpaces the economic growth because of less infrastructural resources to match up for the population.
“Normally, a larger population should serve as an economic asset, but the cultural implications of the north which places less value on education and health systems makes it a challenge rather than an economic asset to the region which causes low labour force and high poverty rate and dependence, affecting federal allocation and regional tension as well as increase in crime rate and insecurity within the region.
“It is only a part and not solely the reason. Although in a situation like this, there is usually the psychology of trying to replace people by having a higher birth rate to increase labour and support, but then one has to look at the healthcare system in the north where there is little access to family planning leading to unintended pregnancies. We also need to look at the cultural perspective whereby there are low female education, early/ child marriages are encouraged, increased poverty level which itself contributes to insecurity.
