Autonomous AI-driven commerce could upend the current online advertising model and reshape how the internet makes money, according to a16z Crypto.
Since the early days of the web, consumers have typically navigated to online stores—often through ads—to make purchases. But Merit Systems co-founder Sam Ragsdale suggests this привычка could change as AI agents begin handling shopping on users’ behalf.
In a recent a16z blog post, Ragsdale described the internet’s core business model from 1997 to 2024 as one built on “distraction,” where ads monetize users’ partial attention. Unlike humans, however, large language models and AI agents are not susceptible to such distractions, potentially undermining the effectiveness of advertising altogether.
The online ad market—dominated by companies like Google—was estimated at $291 billion in 2025, according to Mordor Intelligence. Ragsdale pointed out the irony that advertising helped create the free and open internet, which in turn generated the vast datasets used to train AI models that may now contribute to advertising’s decline.
He noted that early signs of this shift are already visible. AI platforms like ChatGPT and Gemini have introduced features such as “Instant Checkout,” allowing users in the US to complete purchases directly within conversations instead of visiting external websites. This could lead to improved product discovery, higher conversion rates for merchants, and platform fees of around 5% to 10%.
However, Ragsdale argues these systems still function as “walled gardens,” requiring merchants to pass strict approval processes. He believes the future lies in open protocols that enable AI agents to independently discover and transact with merchants.
“An agent limited to pre-approved vendors is like an employee with a restricted corporate card,” Ragsdale explained. “An agent using open protocols is more like an entrepreneur with full financial freedom.”
He concluded that while advertising once revolutionized the internet, its dominance may be fading. In its place, open agentic commerce—powered by protocols such as Coinbase’s x402 and the Machine Payments Protocol (MPP) from Tempo and Stripe—could define the next phase of the digital economy.
