Agricultural consultant launches $30K challenge to expose fraudulent schemes targeting farmers and ranchers, while demonstrating legitimate sell/buy trading strategies amid widespread market manipulation concerns.
Early this week we received a lot of rain. The day before it was dusty. For those not familiar with what that does here, it turns the dust into a thick soup. Kids being kids had to try to drive their four-wheel drives down a dirt road. A couple tried this and didn’t make it too far. They walked to the place and demanded I quit working and come to help them. I told them they blew off common sense and went out of their way to get into trouble, so they could go out of them to get out of trouble instead of demanding a bailout.
I’ve dropped plenty of hints on here, and in my schools over the years of things producers should avoid. Yet many must learn I knew what I was talking about the hard way, just like the kids mentioned above.
Due to teaching sell/buy marketing I now find myself communicating with other educators and consultants. They are noticing the same things with their clients. They have also warned me of scammers I wasn’t aware of. These scammers are in everything from education, consulting, finance, and bookkeeping. All are preying on ag producers.
I already had this blog all typed up, citing several examples of these scams that I have helped people deal with. This has taken up a lot of my time this year.
Then I wrote this: “What I have learned from all this is people don’t change when I warn them, they change when it costs them. Rock bottom is different based on the individual. Some can lose five figures and wake up and quit listening to these scammers. Some stayed hooked up to the point they no longer own any livestock. Then these people tell me the blogs I write now make much more sense.”
After writing that I sent that piece to the trash. It makes no sense to warn people of specific things when they won’t heed it.
I will suggest reading two different books. First is “The 48 Laws of Power” by Robert Greene. This is a book on implementing manipulation techniques. After I read it, I recognized 36 that the cozeners have used on me, and a few other techniques they have used on others.
One thing that is lost on me is how these scammers can inflict so much damage on a person and when that person calls on me for help, they will defend the scammer. It’s like I have to deal with some strange form of Stockholm Syndrome.
The other thing I have noticed is how some of these people were executing prosperous sell/buy trades then followed cozener advice and lost six figures. After talking to these people twice a week for a month they just can’t step back in and execute a virgin buy. That right there is market trauma, causing cognitive dissonance.
For those experiencing this market trauma, or still hung up on years like 2008, or 2015, or some other kind of trauma I recommend the book “The Body Keeps the Score” by Bessel A. van der Kolk.
Since I now know people won’t pay attention to a warning I have decided to embrace my new role as an “influencer.” Turns out the cozener crowd is trying to convince people that is all I am. I guess they were hoping I forgot they’d been here, or maybe we didn’t take pics, or that we threw away their registration form from when they attended my sell/buy marketing school.
This is an easy and fun one for me. I put myself up to what I am calling my $30K Challenge, since that is roughly what these scammers are charging. In early September while executing yet another prosperous sell/buy trade I virgin bought two groups of bawling feeder bulls, since I highlight those groups nearly every week.
The two groups cost me $32K. The next 12 months I will keep readers updated on trades I execute with these cattle. Earning money isn’t that hard once we learn how to do it. My intent with this challenge is to demonstrate that, to keep sell/buy pure since these people are using it to manipulate and scam, and show there are much better things we can invest in. After all, part of the definition of investment is “an expected return.”
These bulls have been here for a month now and are ready to be changed to steers. This is forced equity that I am a huge fan of going after.
Let me tell you all about that September trade, it was an upgrade trade. The sell was mixed southern influenced heifers and the buy back was the black hided ranch kind from western Nebraska. Not only did I upgrade quality and replace some of the heifers with males I also made over $100 per head too. Sell/buy trades during fall run are like Christmas.
This week feeder bulls were up to 60 back. Early in the week, due to all the rain, unweaned calves were up to 58 back. That discount quickly diminished by Thursday. Fleshy cattle were up to 20 back. This was another one of those things I warned about, feeding too much undervalued corn and devaluing the cattle. Replacement heifers bounded upward fetching a 75-cent premium in the Plains states!
Female sale results deviated this week, making spotting relationships and being able to pivot on the fly critical.
Bred heifers were the bell ringers, selling above their Intrinsic Value (IV). Cows in the second sold at or above their IV, while cows in the first were below their IV, and cows in the third were above their IV. Pairs under five years old were over their IV, and over 5 years old were under their IV. 3 in 1s were well under their IV.
If we chart these on a deviation scale, there was a huge price decline between heifers and 3-year-old breds. From there they increased in price until age 6-7, where they declined rapidly.
Notice I didn’t call it a bell curve this time. I have come to figure out the cozeners have gotten many things wrong and did some research into bell curves. Not many female sales fit the technical definition of a bell curve, and especially not this one. I posted pics of the deviation scale on the MrCattlemaster Facebook page.
Sell/buy would navigate this sale. One example would be to sell bred heifers and buy three-year-olds. This trade has us selling $560 value into the market and getting paid $800 for it. Instead of taking the inventory valuation decline we do what we are supposed to do, sell an overvalued animal and buy back an undervalued one, and prosper ourselves in the process. Keep in mind they appreciated in value with age from there.
Another trade to take note of is selling the 6-7-year-olds and buy back the three-year-olds. This trade has us selling no value into the market and pays $700. Once again readers will notice I found a trade that has us getting paid to take younger females home.
The last one is to sell heifer pairs and buy back heifers in the second. This trade sells $1,250 value into the market and getting paid $1,350 for it. One trade will more than pay the cost to keep for a year.
Party Girls in the first could double in value with a $5 shot! The ones in later gestation were equally as great of a buy. At that price we don’t need a live calf, we just need the calf out of them.
What about the 3 in 1s? The math tells us they are neither a sell nor a buy against anything else in the offering.
Next week myself and a handful of other informative speakers will be presenting on the Profitable Regenerative Summit, October 16-17. It will free and live via Zoom. Register here The Profitable Regeneration Summit I have spoken with Jared Soreneson, the host, and the presentations will be available later on YouTube, he realizes this is a busy time of year on the farm and ranch.
