“Should Have Bought” is a news podcast by the ForkLog editorial team covering the week’s main industry events and the hottest tokens.
Topics include the “funeral” of the halving cycle, Changpeng Zhao’s exit, a peculiar DeFi project from the Trumps, and negligible airdrops.
Special guest: Lead VFX Artist, NFT Programmer, and founder of 256.ART, Maxim Vavaev.
Participants: ForkLog authors Lena Jess, Alex K., and Vasily Smirnov.
Halving is no longer the “pin code” to a new bull market. Outlier Ventures specialists have stated in their report that the four-year Bitcoin growth cycle following reward halving has lost its potency.
Following the April event, the leading cryptocurrency fell by 8%. This contrasts with previous halvings, where the asset’s price surged by 739% in 2012 and 22% in 2020.
Experts note that since 2016, the fundamental significance of halving has weakened — the market is mature enough that simply reducing miners’ rewards no longer guarantees growth. However, the psychological impact on investors remains strong. Additionally, current market incentives like spot ETFs could support Bitcoin in the long term.
Binance has permanently removed Changpeng Zhao (CZ) from management. Although his agreement with the US Department of Justice mentioned a three-year ban from leadership roles, new CEO Richard Teng confirmed that CZ remains the largest shareholder and can influence key appointments.
The company’s CEO emphasized that Zhao’s partner and co-founder of the exchange, Yi He, remains “an essential part” of the management team.
CZ is serving a four-month prison sentence for money laundering and other illegal activities, with his release expected on September 29.
Meanwhile, Binance Vice President Tigran Gambaryan has been held in a Nigerian prison for six months with serious health issues. The court has yet to release him on bail.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts a potential drop in Bitcoin to $50,000. He believes altcoins could depreciate even more. The main pressure factor remains the high yields of reverse repo operations with central banks, which sterilizes money on the Fed’s balance sheet.
According to Hayes, by the US presidential elections in November, Janet Yellen might initiate increased spending and promote monetary easing, which would support Bitcoin. However, until the Fed meeting in September, the market will remain under pressure, and the leading cryptocurrency’s rate will continue to fluctuate or decline.
NFT Evening analysts examined 5,000 collections and 5 million transactions, finding that 96% of non-fungible tokens are dead. This category includes projects with zero or low sales and no activity on social network X.
The peak “mortality” of NFTs occurred in 2023, with over 30% of collectible assets ceasing to exist.
The average lifespan of a non-fungible token is 1.14 years, which is 2.5 times shorter than that of traditional crypto projects. Over 43% of NFT holders are currently at a loss, with their assets depreciating by an average of 44.5%.
An exception is the Azuki collection, whose investments have grown 2.5 times thanks to an active community and effective marketing strategies.
