Bitcoin’s circulating supply has now surpassed 95% of its 21 million maximum, marking a significant milestone nearly 17 years after Satoshi Nakamoto mined the genesis block on January 3, 2009.
With 19.95 million Bitcoin currently in circulation, just 2.05 million remain to be mined. This raises questions about what the milestone could mean for Bitcoin’s future and its price trajectory.
Speaking to Cointelegraph, Thomas Perfumo, a global economist at crypto exchange Kraken, highlighted the significance of the moment. He noted that Bitcoin’s annual supply inflation is now around 0.8%, emphasizing that “hard money requires a credible narrative for people to confidently adopt a currency as a store of value.”
“Bitcoin uniquely combines its functionality as a global, real-time and permissionless settlement protocol with the certainty of authenticity and scarcity you’d expect from a masterpiece like the Mona Lisa.”
“This milestone is a reminder of Bitcoin’s resilience against debasement and external intervention, functioning as intended nearly 17 years after its creation,” Perfumo added.
95% of Bitcoin Mined Won’t Automatically Boost Prices
Some have speculated that limiting new supply should naturally drive up Bitcoin’s price as demand rises.
However, Jake Kennis, a senior research analyst at on-chain analytics platform Nansen, said the milestone is unlikely to trigger an immediate market rally. Instead, it reinforces Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative and underscores how core holders and institutional investors are increasingly locking up the limited supply for long-term holding.
“It highlights Bitcoin’s scarcity, but the remaining 5% will take well over a century to reach full circulation due to halving events,” Kennis explained. “While increased scarcity can psychologically support prices, this milestone is more of a narrative event than a direct price driver.”
He added, “The real story isn’t the 95% figure itself—it’s that Bitcoin’s supply schedule is working exactly as designed. It is predictable and scarce in an era of unlimited fiat money printing.” Based on the current block discovery rate and the four-year halving cycle (every 210,000 blocks), the last Bitcoin is expected to be mined around 2140.
Supply Milestone Signals Bitcoin’s Maturity
Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of blockchain oracle RedStone, also noted that the 95% milestone is unlikely to spur immediate price action. He explained that Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are already well-known, most tokens have been gradually released over the past decade, and markets have largely absorbed them.
However, Kazmierczak emphasized that the milestone underscores the importance of scarcity for Bitcoin’s long-term value. He suggested that traders should focus more on whether the supporting infrastructure can scale to accommodate the next phase of institutional adoption.
“What matters more is macroeconomic context, adoption trends, and regulatory clarity than hitting an arbitrary percentage threshold,” he concluded.
“The real inflection points were earlier in the supply curve. What this does represent is Bitcoin’s maturitydash — we’re moving from a growth-phase asset toward one with fixed, predictable long-term scarcity. That’s valuable for institutional adoption, but it’s not a market-moving event in itself.”
Miners May Face Growing Pressure
While a price spike may not be imminent, Kennis noted that the shrinking supply could put additional pressure on miners. Many are still feeling the effects of the April 2024 halving, which cut block rewards to 3.125 Bitcoin.
“Miners are already feeling the impact of reduced block rewards from halvings, most recently in 2024, forcing them to rely increasingly on transaction fees for profitability,” he said.
“The 95% milestone underscores this long-term transition, potentially pushing out less efficient miners while the network hash rate typically recovers quickly.”
Kazmierczak echoed this perspective, noting that the dramatic slowdown in supply growth will fundamentally change mining economics.
“We’re moving from miners relying primarily on block rewards to miners depending more on transaction fees. This shift puts pressure on miners to consolidate operations or improve efficiency,” he explained.
