The derivatives market for Bitcoin spent the final hours before February’s monthly expiry in a state of relative calm, although the underlying metrics reveal a complex risk structure. According to AiCoin data, nearly $7.8 billion in BTC options expire this Friday on Deribit, within a combined total with Ethereum exceeding $8.8 billion. BTC’s max pain is set at $75,000, well above the current spot price near $68,000.
The divergence between the max pain level and the spot price determines the intensity of hedging by dealers. When spot moves away from the zones of highest open interest concentration, coverage pressure tends to moderate. Nevertheless, the presence of open call positions around $100,000 keeps sensitivity to upside moves latent.
After the expiration, historical patterns suggest a readjustment period. The unwinding of hedging releases pressure on spot, while open interest resets and traders migrate positions toward later expiries. Luuk Strijers, CEO of Deribit, previously noted that when more than 25% of open interest expires in the money, volatility tends to increase as positions are closed or rolled.
