Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis and Trading Strategies (August 12, 2025)
News Analysis
Geopolitical Risks Ease
US President Trump will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 to discuss possible solutions to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Market expectations for a thaw in geopolitical tensions have increased, weakening gold’s safe-haven demand.
If the US and Russia reach an agreement, this could further reduce safe-haven buying for gold, potentially keeping gold prices under pressure in the short term.
US CPI Data a Key Focus
The US July CPI data will be released today (August 12). Markets expect the core CPI annual rate to rise to 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target. If the data exceeds expectations, it could reinforce market expectations of a delay in the Fed’s rate cuts, negative for gold. Conversely, if inflation is mild, it could boost gold prices.
Recent Fed officials have taken a hawkish stance, with St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Governor Bowman both citing a weak labor market. However, market expectations for a September rate cut remain uncertain.
Uncertainty surrounding gold tariffs
Last week, gold prices fluctuated sharply due to news that the US would impose tariffs on imported gold bars. However, the White House subsequently stated that it would clarify the policy to avoid the misapplication of tariffs. Further clarity on the policy may ease supply-side concerns, but the short-term market remains sensitive.
Technical Analysis
Key Support and Resistance
Resistance: 3365-3375 (support broken earlier in the session turned into resistance), 3400 (psychological barrier), 3430-3450 (previous high).
Support: 3350 (short-term key support), 3330-3320 (a break below would accelerate the decline), 3300 (psychological barrier), 3270 (medium-term support).
Trend Analysis
Gold prices fell below the key support level of 3380 in early trading on Monday, weakening the technical pattern and forming a short-term top structure, with bears taking the lead. If today’s CPI data is bearish, gold prices could fall further to the 3330-3300 range. Conversely, if the data falls short of expectations, it could rebound to test resistance at 3380-3400.
Trading Recommendations
Short-Term Sell-Short Trading Strategy: Focus on shorting on rebounds. If the price encounters resistance in the 3365-3375 area, consider shorting, with a target of 3330-3320.
Short-Term Buy-Long Trading Strategy: If gold prices stabilize in the 3330-3320 area, try a small long position with a stop-loss below 3315, targeting 3360-3380.
Summary
Gold’s technical outlook is bearish in the short term, influenced by easing geopolitical risks, Fed policy expectations, and CPI data. If today’s CPI data reinforces hawkish expectations, gold prices could fall further to the 3300-3330 support level. If the data is dovish, a rebound is possible. Investors need to pay close attention to the market reaction after the data is released and strictly control risks.
