The Texas Rangers have less than two weeks left to play in the regular season. Twelve games stand between them and an extended run in the playoffs, or a second-consecutive season without October baseball. The window of opportunity to avoid the latter is upon them.
Point being: There’s no time to dilly dally.
So we won’t either.
Here are five things we learned about the Rangers this week.
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The weekly playoff odds peek
Or, as we should rename this section, the weekly “good news, bad news” roundup.
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The good news, according to FanGraphs, is that the Rangers have more than doubled their playoff odds in the span of a week from 15% on Sep. 7 to 33.6% on Sep. 14.
The bad news is that metric still ranks seventh among AL teams and, as a reminder, only six will qualify for the playoffs. It remains bad math for Texas and advanced models are not required to understand how or why.
The Rangers, despite a 5-1 week in which they won consecutive series against National League contenders, actually lost ground in the AL Wild Card race. They were one-and-a-half games back of the third bid last Sunday; this Sunday, after a loss to the New York Mets, they were two games back.
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The Seattle Mariners — once considered their primary competition for that third berth — have won nine games in a row and zoomed into first place in the AL West. The Cleveland Guardians, whom the Rangers will play on the final weekend of the season, are 9-1 in their last 10 games and now only a half-game back of Texas.
AdvertisementA new target has emerged
The term “new” is subjective here.
The Rangers, at least as the standings currently sit, no longer need to leapfrog the Mariners to secure a playoff position. The Houston Astros — who are 6-7 this month and have tumbled from first place in the division to the third AL Wild Card spot — now represent the hurdle that must be cleared.
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How convenient.
The Rangers and Astros start a three-game series Monday night at Daikin Park that may determine the trajectory of each team’s season. The Rangers can take hold of that final Wild Card spot if they sweep the Astros and would hold a one-game lead over their division rivals with nine games to play. Texas is 2-1 at Daikin Park this season and 6-4 against the Astros overall this season.
This is not to say that the Mariners (who hold a one-game lead over the Astros and a three-game lead over the Rangers) are entirely out of the picture or out of reach.
It just means that the Rangers can readjust their focus.
AdvertisementThe improbability of Hel-mania
Did you think we’d get through these five thoughts without something related to outfielder Michael Helman’s wild week?
You shouldn’t have.
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The fact of the matter is that Helman, a 29-year-old rookie, has been among baseball’s most impactful hitters in his small sample size run with the Rangers this last month. His .937 OPS ranks ninth among all batters who’ve totaled 70 or more plate appearances this year. His 156 wRC+ — an advanced metric which measures a player’s ability to create runs for his team — ranks eighth. His 0.9 WAR accumulated, per FanGraphs, is the ninth-best among all Rangers hitters despite the fact that he’s only played in 26 games.
His performance, according to a FanGraphs statistic that measures value in a dollar figure, has been worth $6.9 million this season. The Rangers will pay him somewhere around a quarter-of-a-million dollars this season for his month-plus of work. That’s how you nail transactions around the margins.
One thing has gone according to plan
Rangers first baseman Jake Burger, in his best Babe Ruth impression, called his shot.
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“I know how fast these things can change,” Burger told The Dallas Morning News before a July 10 game against the Los Angeles Angels. “Paul Konerko, when I first got drafted, told me that if you have two really bad months, two average months and two really good months, you’re a pretty good big leaguer.”
The two really good months have commenced. Burger has slashed .345/.387/.655 in 19 games (an abbreviated window due to two trips to the injured list) since the All-Star break.
His 1.042 OPS since then is the fourth-highest among all hitters who’ve had at least 50 plate appearances in that span. Only Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz, Toronto Blue Jays outfielder George Springer and Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani have been better.
Burger has improved his chase rate from 40% in the season’s first half to just 34.6% in second half. His improved patience, and his ability to ignore pitches away, equals a higher dosage of the pitch that Burger had feasted upon prior to this season.
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He’s slashed .417/.462/1.167 against four-seam fastballs in the second half, up from a measly .158/.183/.298 in the first half, and delivered on what the Rangers had hoped for when they acquired him from the Miami Marlins last winter.
Latz but not least
How well as Rangers left-hander Jacob Latz performed as a substitute starter since right-hander Nathan Eovaldi landed on the injured list?
He’s been among the AL’s best.
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(Well, you know, with an asterisk).
Latz, who pitched 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball against the New York Mets Sunday, has a 2.62 ERA in seven starts this season. That ranks seventh among all starting pitchers in the AL who’ve thrown at least 30 innings in that role. All-Star right-hander Jacob deGrom, for reference, ranks 11th with a 2.82 ERA.
Consider this a reminder that the Rangers rotation has been ludicrously strong this year. Latz, even with that innings parameter, only qualifies for the bronze medal on his own staff. Eovaldi (1.73 ERA in 130 innings) ranks second among AL starters who’ve pitched at least 30 innings this year; right-hander Tyler Mahle (2.34 ERA in 77 innings) ranks fifth.
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