History shows that traditional risk assets need to “cool” before crypto surges.
Bitcoin (BTC) is dropping as crypto markets fail to copy gold and stocks — is the bull market over?
New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shares four key reasons why Bitcoin and altcoins are “red” — Fed rate cuts, stablecoin reserves, leveraged traders and historical norms.
Bitcoin has become “stuck” recently as liquidity games keep bulls away from challenging all-time highs.
At the same time, both gold and US stock markets continue to post repeat all-time highs, leading to concerns that crypto has failed to become a mainstream asset class.
CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan has other ideas. Crypto, it argues, is simply repeating historical patterns.
“In the early phase of rate cuts, institutional capital tends to move first into high-liquidity assets like equities and gold,” it wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts, referring to interest-rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.
“Crypto — especially altcoins — sits at the end of the liquidity pipeline, benefiting only when risk appetite broadens.”
XWIN compared the current market setup on Bitcoin and largest altcoin Ether (ETH) to that from a year ago, and found key similarities.
“The pattern mirrors 2024: a front-run rally after the Fed’s rate cut, followed by a correction as liquidity failed to fully rotate into crypto. Only after traditional assets cooled did BTC and ETH outperform,” it added.
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin in particular has long been known to follow gold higher after a delay of several months.
Continuing, XWIN flagged stablecoin reserves as another factor creating a delayed reaction to the risk-asset moonshot.
Related: Bitcoin Bollinger Bands tighter than ever as trader eyes $107K ‘max pain’
The overall stablecoin supply hit a record $308 billion this month. Still, at the same time, more stablecoins are leaving exchanges than entering, showing a risk-off or profit-taking mentality among traders.
“Liquidity is parked off-exchange — bridged, sidelined, or used in private markets — rather than actively deployed to buy BTC or ETH,” it summarized.
Similar issues impact accumulation, as data from derivatives platforms show a trader preference for “hedging and leverage strategies” — a classic response to sideways market action.
“History suggests Bitcoin tends to “lag, then leap,” XWIN concluded.
“Following equity ATHs, BTC has historically gained +12% in 30 days and +35% in 90 days. Short-term headwinds remain — QT, Treasury liquidity absorption, and looming options expiry — but the structural setup favors crypto once liquidity cycles catch up.”
As Cointelegraph reported, this Friday’s $22.6 billion options expiry is significant, potentially impacting prices moving forward.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
