More volatility is expected this week as markets digest the escalation of military action in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve makes its interest rate announcement.
Crypto markets have been relatively quiet over the weekend as assets have stabilized following their $200 billion dump on Friday when Israel attacked Iran.
Last week, the consumer sentiment index rebounded in its first improvement in six months, while cooler-than-expected consumer and producer inflation reports (CPI and PPI) lifted investor spirits.
However, Friday’s escalation of conflict caused stocks and crypto to tumble as investors fled to cash and gold. Meanwhile, oil prices surged nearly 5% as markets opened for the first time since Friday, suggesting that the volatility is not going away yet.
Monday morning is likely to see some market reaction from the weekend’s violence, which has continued from both sides. Iran reportedly told mediators Qatar and Oman that it is not open to negotiating a ceasefire with Israel while under Israeli attack.
May’s Retail Sales report is due on Tuesday, providing data on how much consumers are spending on durable and non-durable goods. Retail Sales reports are a leading indicator of economic health, offering insights into inflationary pressures stemming from consumer demand.
Tuesday also sees May’s Industrial Production report released. This Fed data shows the volume of production of US industries like manufacturing, mining, and utilities, and has little impact on markets.
Wednesday has the big Federal Reserve rates decision, and futures markets still foresee no change in rates at the coming meeting, with a 96.7% probability of rates remaining at 4.25-4.50%.
“If they [Federal Reserve] move rates lower too early before there is evidence that there is weakening in the economy that they can then point to, they raise the risk of actually boosting inflation expectations further,” said Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management.
US markets are closed on Thursday for Juneteenth, a federal holiday that commemorates the emancipation of enslaved African Americans.
Total market capitalization has remained flat over the weekend, hovering around $3.4 trillion, and the past 24 hours have seen little change in digital asset prices.
Bitcoin dipped below $105,000 late on Sunday but reclaimed that level in Monday’s Asian trading session in a move back above $106,000. Ethereum prices are up 1.8% on the day as the asset heads toward $2,600 again.
The altcoins are generally performing well at the moment, with larger daily moves for Solana, Hyperliquid, Sui, and Bitcoin Cash.
