Altcoin trading volume is rising, despite weak prices and low retail participation.
The fourth quarter of 2025 proved to be a challenging period for crypto markets, with most major assets ending the year in negative territory.
Despite fear and caution dominating the market, some analysts believe that a rebound may yet materialize. Market experts have identified three key signals that could point to the start of a potential altcoin season in 2026.
The first key signal is the formation of bullish divergences on weekly charts across several altcoins. This occurs when price hits lower lows but indicators, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), form higher lows, suggesting weakening bearish momentum and increasing the probability of a trend reversal.
Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out this development, citing Optimism, Arbitrum, Near, and Avalanche as examples. According to him,
“The weekly timeframe is one of the strongest timeframes to be building this from. This is the year of the entire Web3 industry. Not commodities.”
The second indicator is the Others.D index. This tracks the combined market dominance of all cryptocurrencies outside the top 10 by market capitalization.
In practical terms, it excludes Bitcoin, Ethereum, other large-cap assets, and major stablecoins, offering insight into broader altcoin market strength. According to analysts, Others.D is nearing a breakout from a multi-year falling wedge.
From an analytical perspective, this is often interpreted as a potentially bullish structure. Analysts generally view a breakout above the upper trendline as a signal that buyers are regaining control, which can precede a broader trend reversal or sustained upward move.
According to data from Bitcoinsensus, Others.D was around 6.88%, pointing to room for expansion if a breakout occurs. The analysis pointed to 13.77% as an upside target.
In a separate post, Bitcoinsensus drew attention to Bitcoin Dominance’s recent performance as a possible early indicator of an approaching altcoin season.
The final signal comes from centralized exchange volume data. The ratio of altcoin volume (excluding the top five cryptocurrencies) is “significantly higher” compared to in previous cycles, according to on-chain analyst CW8900.
“Someone says, ‘there is no alt season in this cycle.’ However, on-chain data shows that altcoin trading is more active than in any previous cycle,” the analyst stated.
This high activity remains even as prices fall and retail investors exit. The market watcher stated that,
“Altcoin dominance has shifted to whales, who will drive up prices to maximize their profits during this bull market.”
Despite these indicators, skepticism remains widespread. Crypto Twitter has low expectations for a broad altcoin rally on the scale seen in previous cycles. Adding to that view, Bitget CEO Gracy Chen stated in October that an altcoin season is unlikely to emerge in 2025 or 2026.
With bullish technical signals emerging alongside persistent doubt, the coming months will determine whether these patterns translate into sustained price momentum or remain signals without any follow-through.
