After turning in two straight years of triple-digit returns in 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin (BTC 2.20%) is on track in 2025 for its weakest performance since 2022. The world’s most popular cryptocurrency is down 6% over the past 30 days, and is only up 20% for the year as I write this.
So what’s going on? There are three possible reasons why Bitcoin is pulling back.
For much of its history, Bitcoin has been uncorrelated with any major asset class. It could zig when other assets zagged. That made Bitcoin particularly attractive to investors. In just about any market conditions, Bitcoin could offer the potential for sky-high returns.
But that may no longer be the case. In many ways, Bitcoin may be much more susceptible to overall macroeconomic conditions than once thought. In other words, Bitcoin will face much stiffer headwinds if jobs growth slows, if inflation further rears its head, or if tariffs lead to weaker overall growth. And that’s exactly what appears to be happening right now.
Bitcoin’s pullback makes sense if you consider how much attention it now garners from institutional investors. Just a few years ago, retail investors were driving the pace of Bitcoin adoption. But now it’s deep-pocketed institutional investors, and that likely explains the crypto market’s current obsession with potential Fed rate cuts.
While Bitcoin still accounts for nearly 60% of the entire market cap of the crypto market, it’s hard to ignore how much interest other niches of the crypto market are now attracting from investors. At one time, Bitcoin was the only game in town for institutional investors. But not any longer.
Take, for example, the rise of so-called digital asset treasury companies. These companies do only one thing: Raise money from outside investors, and then plow that money back into one specific crypto asset. This summer has already seen the appearance of Ethereum, Solana, and XRP treasury companies. All of that is money that could have flowed into Bitcoin.
Or, for example, take the sudden interest in stablecoins. Recently enacted legislation will likely lead to a boom in stablecoin investment. According to a recent report from Citigroup, the size of the stablecoin market could balloon to $3.7 trillion within just a few years. This, too, is money that could have gone into Bitcoin.
This diversification away from Bitcoin into other crypto assets is not a new phenomenon. This is the same pattern, in fact, that the crypto market saw during the previous bull market rally of 2020-21. Bitcoin surged first, followed by Ethereum, and then lower market cap altcoins. Finally, there was an explosion of speculative excess into meme coins and non-fungible tokens (NFTs).
That leads us to potentially the most concerning reason for Bitcoin’s pullback: The four-year Bitcoin cycle is running to where it usually drops. If you’re a Bitcoin investor, that’s the last thing you want to hear, because it means Bitcoin’s recent pullback may be a portent of things to come later in 2025.
There are no guarantees in investing, but if history is any guide, the Bitcoin halving every four years is the catalyst for a massive run-up in price. So far there have been four halvings, and the post-halving period of price appreciation typically has lasted anywhere from 12 to 18 months, followed by a classic “blow-off top”– a steep, rapid rise followed by a steep, rapid drop. In that scenario, Bitcoin reaches a new high all-time high before eventually collapsing in value. In 2022, for example, Bitcoin declined by a gut-wrenching 64% after hitting a new all-time high in November 2021 following the May 2020 halving.
The problem, quite frankly, is that Bitcoin’s most recent halving event took place in April 2024. That means we are now 17 months into the period of expected to be rapid price appreciation. In a worst-case scenario, there might only be a few months left before Bitcoin has another blow-off top, and the whole cycle begins anew.
Certainly, there are plenty of signs of this blow-off top in progress. Billions of dollars are being invested in highly speculative digital assets, money-losing businesses are rapidly transforming into digital asset treasury companies, new crypto companies are rushing to go public before the crypto IPO window closes, and Wall Street is rushing to reassure investors that “this time it’s different.”
So, if you are thinking of investing in Bitcoin now, remember to do your due diligence and keep your investment small. There are several very concerning signs that Bitcoin’s summer pullback might be a red flag for a difficult and tumultuous final quarter of the year.
