On November 24th, the research report of CITIC Securities stated that the President of the New York Fed, Williams, hinted at a further interest rate cut in December, which reversed the market’s expectation of an interest rate cut. Currently, the market believes that there is a 70% probability of a Fed interest rate cut in December. The Fed will enter a quiet period starting from November 29th. During this period, Powell will not have any public speaking engagements or media interviews scheduled. The speech by his “close ally”, Williams, may be the last time a Fed official speaks to influence market expectations. Continuing from the previous views, it is expected that there will be an interest rate cut in December or a “close call” interest rate cut of 25 basis points. For the market, the reversal of the interest rate cut expectation, combined with the progress of the “28-point” plan and the news that the Trump administration is considering exporting H200 chips to China, macro factors are no longer a source of market pressure in the short term. The market may focus more on issues such as AI companies issuing bonds, cryptocurrency trends, and other matters. (Jinshi)
