On November 23rd, Bitcoin has been continuously declining from its peak of $96,000 this week. It dropped to a low of around $80,600 on Friday, November 21st, at around 20:25 Beijing time. That evening, several Federal Reserve officials gave speeches, releasing bullish signals and reversing the market’s previous belief that there would be “almost no rate cut in December.” The earliest speaker appeared almost simultaneously with the $80,600 low point. These officials include: New York Fed President Williams stated that considering the current policy, which seems to be tightening, the Fed could still cut rates in the short term. The inflation process has stalled, but it is expected to reach the 2% target by 2027. Fed Governor Milan said that the impact of the non-farm data released on Thursday was “clearly dovish,” and that insufficient data does not mean the Fed lacks forecasts. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson also said that he believes that the current AI-related U.S. stock rally is unlikely to repeat the collapse of the late 1990s internet bubble, mainly because today’s AI-related companies are more mature and have real profit capabilities. Fed’s Logan said that the Fed’s balance sheet is expected to resume growth soon. After several officials collectively “turned dovish” to reverse the situation, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher, and Bitcoin also started a rebound. The market believes that the probability of a rate cut in December has quickly risen to above 70%. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin’s rebound has briefly exceeded $86,000. Several market analysts and traders have stated that the “short-term bottom has been reached.” These include: Well-known Chinese crypto analyst Banmu Xia stated that $80,500 can be basically confirmed as an important low point of this bear market and may even be the lowest point. However, the bear market has not ended, and there may still be a “bottoming consolidation” in the future. Crypto trading indicator analysis platform CoinKarma pointed out that the spot trading volume at the closing of the BTC daily chart on November 21st showed near-term maximum volume on multiple exchanges, indicating significant turnover in the market. This kind of “large turnover, volume-supported rebound” structure is a typical short-term bottom signal. Placeholder VC partner Chris Burniske stated that the cryptocurrency market seems to be ready for a rebound until it is bullish enough to make people believe again, followed by the next round of sharp decline.
