November 18th. Bitcoin witnessed its first dip below $90,000 in nearly 7 months, with a daily decline of 5.9% and a decrease of more than 28.7% from the current peak. When will the decline cease, and at what price range will the ultimate bottom be reached? BlockBeats has compiled the following key analysis points before and after this round of decline: Placeholder VC partner Chris Burniske pointed out that the signs of a market top have now emerged, and he plans to re-enter when BTC drops to $75,000 or lower. The significant drop on October 11th had a lasting impact on the market, making it difficult to promptly establish sustained buying pressure. The monthly charts of BTC and ETH show cracks but are still within the “top range.” Additionally, the decline in MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price, warnings in the gold and credit markets, all indicate that a broader asset adjustment is imminent. “This bull market is different, and the next bear market will also be different.” It is not a situation of going all-in or completely exiting; rather, it is a gradual strategy. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggested that Bitcoin may first decline to $80,000 to $85,000 before rising to $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of the year. In his latest blog post “Snow Forecast,” he stated, “Bitcoin has dropped from $125,000 to around $90,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices are still hovering near all-time highs. This leads me to believe that a credit event may be on the horizon. As I observe the decline in the USD liquidity index since July, this view is confirmed. If the assessment is correct, the stock market may experience a 10%-20% correction, while the 10-year US Treasury yield approaches 5%, forcing the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, or other US government agencies to urgently implement some form of money printing scheme. During this soft period, Bitcoin may fall to $80,000 to $85,000. If there is a broader risk market collapse and the Federal Reserve and Treasury accelerate money printing actions, Bitcoin could potentially surge to $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of the year.” Chinese crypto analyst Banmuxia stated: Bitcoin may first drop to $94,500 and then enter a period of complex oscillation, with the final bottom around $84,000. “Regarding Bitcoin, many people still underestimate the complexity of the upcoming market conditions. I believe the high probability is that this small bear market will end around $84,000, but that does not mean it will continuously and smoothly decline to $84,000. This time, it is most likely to be a complex sideways adjustment. Currently, it may experience a slight drop to around $94,500 and then probably enter an extremely complex oscillation. There may be a rebound potentially reaching above $116,000 before gradually dropping to the $84,000 and below 6-8% range.” The Chairman of Bitmine, Ethereum’s first institutional holder, Tom Lee, stated that it will take 6 to 8 weeks to address the funding gap issue affecting market-making, and the impact on the market may ease after Thanksgiving (November 27). The pain is short-term and will not change ETH’s super cycle (i.e., Wall Street building an ecosystem on the blockchain). The founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), Li Hua Yi, stated: “Panic has reached its peak. We truly understand everyone’s discussions about the four-year cycle and various daily, weekly, and yearly trends. However, we insist that the current position is the best spot to buy the dip in the spot markets, and we are optimistic about the subsequent market trends. When others are panicking, it is time to be greedy. Even if we have been right ten times before, it does not mean we will be right the next time. Nonetheless, in investing and trading, always trust your own logic. Our sharing and operations are not influenced by market information. In the world of cryptocurrencies, one day is like ten years in the real world. In fact, from the peak to the low point, it is just a little over a month. However, when all the negative news is out, buying is a better choice than selling.” Bloomberg Businessweek’s Person of the Year and two-time China’s Most Influential Economist, Hong Hao, posted on Xiaohongshu that if Bitcoin falls to $92,000, it may only find significant support after dropping to the $70,000 range. Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated that he is starting to be bullish and has added to his long positions in ETH and SOL. “I have added to my long positions in ETH and SOL. The oscillators have clearly returned to oversold levels, and I believe it is time to increase exposure to this market again.”
