Cryptocurrency asset manager 21Shares has come up with a base-case price target of $2.45 for 2026.
Research analyst Matt Mena argued that the combination of regulatory clarity and the aggressive uptake of U.S. spot ETFs is creating a “supply shock” for the controversial altcoin.
“XRP stands at a defining turning point: a decisive shift from speculative volatility to a valuation anchored in institutional fundamentals,” Mena wrote.
Base, bull, and bear
21Shares outlined three potential scenarios for XRP’s performance in 2026. According to the fresh report released by the ETF issuer, the performance of the token will depend on such factors as ETF flows, real-world asset (RWA) adoption, and macroeconomic conditions:
The base case assumes regulatory stability continues to support steady ETF inflows and incremental utility upgrades.
The bull case is $2.69. In this scenario, institutional RWA scaling accelerates and “supply exhaustion” triggers a structural repricing.
If adoption stagnates and capital rotates elsewhere, XRP could plunge back to 1.6%.
Growing scarcity
According to 21Shares, XRP exchange reserves have fallen to a seven-year low of 1.7 billion XRP.
This scarcity is colliding with the launch of U.S. XRP spot ETFs, which amassed over $1.3 billion in assets under management in their first month alone
“Institutional ETF demand is colliding with a community that refuses to sell,” the report states. “This intersection of scale and scarcity is the primary engine for a non-linear repricing throughout 2026.”
Echoes of “DeFi summer”
The report suggests XRP is mirroring Ethereum’s trajectory from 2017-2018, where “abstract promise gave way to proven utility.”
21Shares argues XRP is building its own “flywheel” through the rapid growth of its stablecoin, RLUSD.
The stablecoin has surged 1,800% in market cap to nearly $1.4 billion.
