A big event came and went, and the crypto market barely reacted.
On the 28th of November, about 150,000 Bitcoin [BTC] options ($13.4 billion) and 573,000 Ethereum [ETH] options ($1.7 billion) expired, bringing the total to $15.4 billion. In short, this marked a major month-end expiry.
The interesting part? Positions were highly concentrated: BTC’s Put/Call Ratio hit 0.58, meaning more longs than shorts, with max pain around $100k. ETH was perfectly balanced at a 1.0 put/call ratio, max pain $3.4k.
And yet, despite the size of the expiry, the market barely moved.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin closed at $90,955, with a high of $93k, staying below its max pain level. For context, max pain is the price where option sellers (shorts) would sell BTC to limit their losses.
In this case, since BTC stayed below $100k, sellers didn’t need to push the price around, and the market remained relatively calm. Hence, the real question is: Did this steadiness show Bitcoin’s underlying strength?
The market is still trying to decide whether Bitcoin has truly bottomed.
In this context, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes argued that BTC may have found a floor at $80k during the latest sell-off. He based this view on the possibility that the Fed is close to ending its Quantitative Tightening cycle.
At the same time, CryptoQuant noted that the market just saw the biggest Open Interest wipeout of this cycle. A sharp reset from about $45 billion down to $28 billion, which flushed out a lot of overheated positions.
Put simply, the market just went through a clean flush.
With that backdrop, the $15 billion Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry arrived at a time when leverage was already drained. In turn, this helps explain why the event came and went with barely any volatility.
At the same time, BTC holding around $90k in a risk-off environment, even with max pain way up at $100k showed that sellers didn’t need to push prices lower, and buyers were still stepping in to defend support.
In this context, this resilience could be an early sign of a Bitcoin bottom.
