Speaking in a recent market interview on CNBC, the Bitwise Chief Investment Officer described the current retail environment as one of “maximum desperation,” citing the recent wave of leveraged liquidations, futures wipeouts, and yield protocol failures as evidence.
According to him, the market sentiment at the moment is at its most depressive level, which signals a bottom rather than the end of the cycle.
“The crypto market is shifting to an institutionally driven market, and interestingly, that’s a bullish element. I am optimistic that we rally into year-end and Q1 2026,” he said.
He added that “The market needs to finish the flush out of retail leverage-driven sentiment, and we’re close to the bottom before a bullish reversal.”
Hougan’s projection aligns closely with recent remarks shared by Fundstrat Capital CIO Tom Lee, who recently discussed Bitcoin’s state following the October 10 liquidation.
In a separate CNBC interview, Lee noted Bitcoin’s struggle to stay above $103,000, explaining
“Since October 10, that liquidation was like a miniature rupture, almost like a tsunami. The market is still consolidating from that effect.”
Despite the short-term weakness, Lee argued that fundamentals remain strong, citing record stablecoin volumes and surging application revenues across Ethereum and Solana.
“Fundamentals are leading price right now,” he said. “Eventually, we consolidate and rally into year-end, I still think Bitcoin can reach between $150,000 and $200,000.”
Professional crypto trader and Kraken-backed prop firm co-founder Trader Mayne also weighed in on the current state of the market.
Mayne believes the current Bitcoin structure remains consistent with the historic four-year cycle.
“The current price action looks like a four-year cycle, acts like a four-year cycle — chances are, it is one,” he wrote, projecting a cycle top in Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026.
He further highlighted the BTC/Gold ratio, noting that gold typically leads Bitcoin breakouts by 60-90 days and that the ratio appears to have bottomed.
“Since Bitcoin hasn’t had its blow-off top yet, while gold, tech stocks, and even some crypto firms have seen parabolic rallies, I still believe Bitcoin’s explosive phase is ahead,” he added.
Mayne also pointed out that Bitcoin’s next weekly cycle low is either in or imminent, which could precede a push to new all-time highs.
“The chart structure suggests a cycle low that leads to a new ATH,” he said, adding that he thinks Trump has a few tricks left up his sleeve to try to pump the markets going into 2026.
However, he cautioned that while everyone is expecting a rally into year-end, if the current rally fails to establish a new high, the market could enter a prolonged distribution phase.
While the odds that Bitcoin’s top came in October around $126,000 are “relatively low,” Mayne noted that “anything remains possible.”
If the four-year cycle holds, he expects 2026 to be largely bearish, though not as severe as past drawdowns.
“I don’t expect an 80% crash, but we could see significantly lower prices. 2026 might also mark a strong year for the U.S. dollar,” he concluded.
Crypto investor since 2017, Credibull, also shared that Bitcoin on the high timeframes remains unequivocally bullish, and the current correction is considered normal and healthy in the high-timeframe context.
According to him, the current correction should either hold above the lows at $98K (what’s called a “running flat”) or potentially wick below them (what’s called an “expanded flat”). In either case, there is no change in high-timeframe structure.
