Bitcoin Kicks Off the Week in Recovery Mode as Bulls Wipe Out Israel-Iran Losses — What’s Next for BTC Price?
- A Strong Weekly Close and Break Above $107K Puts BTC/USD on Solid Ground as Wall Street Reopens.
- Markets Brace for Key Fed Rate Decision Amid Concerns Over Inflation Fueled by Rising Oil Prices.
- In a Rare Display of Unity, Both Bitcoin Whales and Retail Investors Hold Steady at Current Price Levels.
- Perpetual Markets Remain Below Spot Prices, Fueling Expectations of an Incoming Short Squeeze.
- BTC Price Targets Remain Bold, With $200K Still in Sight and No Technical Indicators Pointing to a Long-Term Top.
Liquidity in the Spotlight as Bitcoin Holds $105,000 Into Weekly Close
Following a relatively flat weekly close, Bitcoin is regaining momentum, climbing back above $107,000 to kick off the week.
According to data from TradingView, the sharp losses triggered by the Israel-Iran conflict have largely been reversed.
“Closed the weekly over $104,500, which is a very good sign. Just need to hold over now,” noted popular trader Crypto Tony in an optimistic post on X.
At the weekly open, blocks of ask liquidity positioned above the spot price were tapped during the first Wall Street trading session. Popular analyst Mark Cullen noted that this increases the chances of liquidity beneath the current price being targeted next.
Monitoring platform CoinGlass also highlighted order book liquidity as a key short-term price magnet, pointing to the $104,000 level as an area of particular interest.
“Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range this month, with just a 10% gap between the high and low,” noted analyst and YouTube host Rananjay Singh.
“But in the last 4 years, every month moved more than this. This tells us a big move is coming, up or down.”
Earlier reports highlighted traders’ expectations for support retests, with $100,000 emerging as a key level that bulls are determined to defend.
FOMC Week Begins Under the Shadow of Rising Oil Prices
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision stands out as the key macroeconomic event of the week, with recent geopolitical tensions adding pressure to its ongoing battle against inflation.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the June 18 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to extend the current pause in rate cuts, which has persisted throughout 2025.
Although markets had already largely ruled out the possibility of a rate cut before September, mounting pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump places the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell in a delicate position.
As a result, Powell’s remarks during the upcoming FOMC press conference will be closely scrutinized by market participants for any hints of a potential policy shift.
The meeting also coincides with a sharp rise in oil and commodity prices, which threatens to disrupt U.S. inflation expectations—especially as the effects of trade tariffs have yet to appear in the macroeconomic data.
“After dropping below key support at the $66 level, oil prices have staged a massive reversal due to geopolitical tensions and concerns over Middle East oil supply,” noted trading firm Mosaic Asset in the latest edition of its newsletter, The Market Mosaic.
“Along with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hitting the lowest level in over three years, the developments are sending broad commodity indexes near a key multi-year resistance level. A breakout would have significant implications on the inflation outlook in the months ahead.”
Historically, a weak U.S. dollar and strong oil prices have served as bullish catalysts for Bitcoin — a potential silver lining amid current market tensions.
However, in a recent analysis on X, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter suggested a different narrative may already be unfolding.
“While all of the headlines point to more escalation and a longer war, the stock market says the EXACT OPPOSITE. Equity markets have turned green, oil prices are now up just +0.5%, and gold is down just -0.5%,” the post noted on June 16.
“If the market were truly concerned about a long-term conflict, oil prices would have already crossed above $100/barrel. In fact, oil prices are more than 10% BELOW their high recorded last week.”
Kobeissi concluded that markets may be pricing in the possibility of a “peace deal” despite the prevailing geopolitical tensions.
Whales and Retail Investors Aligned: Bitcoin Remains a “HODL”
Bitcoin whales—often considered the “smart money” of the crypto market—typically behave differently from retail investors, buying early and offloading profits as retail interest ramps up.
However, new data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant reveals a rare alignment between the two groups. Both whales and smaller investors appear to be in firm “HODL” mode around the $106,000 level.
“Today, Binance BTC inflows from both groups have dropped to their lowest levels since the beginning of this cycle,” noted contributor Darkfost in a June 15 Quicktake blog post.
“This pattern indicates a strong preference for holding rather than selling. Notably, both whales and retail investors appear aligned in their approach, a highly constructive signal for the market.”
CryptoQuant data highlights a notable contrast between the current market sentiment and that of late 2024, when BTC/USD was hitting all-time highs for the first time in nearly seven months.
At that time, whales and retail investors also moved in sync—but by collectively sending coins to exchanges to sell.
“Apart from the steady inflows seen earlier in the cycle, there were two major instances when both whales and retail investors acted in unison. These periods aligned with previous market tops, marked by clearly visible synchronized inflows into Binance from both groups,” Darkfost explained.
“This sharp decline in inflows may suggest that most participants are waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals or simply maintaining high conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term trend.”
Earlier reports highlighted the sharp decline in Bitcoin reserves held on spot exchanges, with 550,000 BTC withdrawn over the past year—amounting to nearly one-third of their total supply.
Binance Analysis Highlights Potential for Short Squeeze
CryptoQuant contributor and Alphractal founder Joao Wedson is closely watching Binance for signs of a potential short squeeze and a Bitcoin price breakout.
Over the weekend, he pointed out that BTC prices in the derivatives market are currently trading below spot prices—an indicator that has historically favored bullish momentum once reversed.
“If the BTC perpetual price difference on Binance turns positive again, it’s a sign that the price is about to explode,” he told his followers on X, citing data from Alphractal.
“Until that happens, we can say that many institutions are already putting pressure through Shorts, which could be good for a possible Short Squeeze since they’re going against the OG Whales.”
Alphractal data reveals that the “derivatives discount” has remained notably elevated throughout 2025.
“Unlike in 2021–2022, when this type of price gap indicated a bear market, today’s context is different—we’re at all-time highs, yet the discount in derivatives persists,” the platform noted.
“This may reflect institutional hedging, arbitrage, or ETF dynamics.”
BTC Price Targets Set Their Sights on the Moon
Despite Bitcoin’s recent price stagnation and repeated struggles to break new all-time highs, sentiment among traders remains far from bearish.
Over the past week, a growing number of analysts have suggested that BTC/USD is merely consolidating ahead of its next push higher, with new record highs seen as a matter of when—not if.
The real question now is just how high Bitcoin might climb before reaching its next long-term peak.
“Bitcoin is trending upward within an Ascending Broadening Wedge,” popular trader Alan Tardigrade noted in a forecast shared on June 15.
“This pattern has recently formed for weeks and is expected to reach $170k levels.”
Price targets of $200,000 or higher are becoming increasingly common for the current Bitcoin bull market, with no clear signs that a long-term top is approaching.
As previously reported, CoinGlass’s “bull market peak” dashboard—featuring 30 key indicators—continues to signal a strong uptrend, currently advising investors to “hold 100%” of their Bitcoin allocation.
