Quarter four carries election risks, Mt. Gox repayments, halving window, mixed BTC outlook ahead.
With the crypto market cap near $3.04 trillion, investors are already looking ahead to 2026. Instead of hype, the focus is now on key dates, policy moves, and rule changes that could shape the next market phase.
10x Research, led by Markus Thielen, breaks the year down quarter by quarter, highlighting moments that could drive volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The year will begin under tight liquidity conditions. Early meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve, tax deadlines, and the possibility of renewed U.S. government shutdown risks in the first quarter could all add pressure.
Even the CME-fed watch tool shows an 82% chance that there will be no rate cut in January. Which means that if no cut happens, Bitcoin and altcoins could see a pullback or sideways movement.
For crypto, new rules will also come into effect. From January 1, 2026, the European Union’s DAC8 rules will require exchanges to report detailed crypto transactions to tax authorities. This could add short-term pressure but also bring more clarity to the industry.
The second quarter could bring more uncertainty. Jerome Powell will reach the end of his second term as Federal Reserve Chair on May 15, 2026. Markets may react as investors try to guess who will replace him.
Many expect the next Fed Chair to align more closely with Donald Trump’s preference for lower interest rates. Meanwhile, names like Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Warsh are often mentioned as possible candidates.
At the same time, Ethereum is expected to undergo major network upgrades around mid-year. These changes could create both risks and opportunities for traders.
By the third quarter, new crypto rules move from plans to real action. The European Union will fully apply its MiCA rules by July 1, 2026, giving clear laws for digital assets.
During this period, U.S. budget problems and shutdown risks may return. In the past, similar issues caused a government shutdown that lasted about 40 days, which hurt market confidence.
Because of this, markets may react strongly to policy news, especially around the September Federal Reserve meeting and major derivatives expiry dates.
The fourth quarter may bring the highest risks of all. The 2026 U.S. midterm elections could add political uncertainty, something markets often react to late.
Late in the year, the crypto space faces the final Mt. Gox creditor repayments, now scheduled for 2026. Mt. Gox still holds around 34,689 BTC, worth close to $4 billion, which could affect Bitcoin prices as distributions finish.
Lastly, markets will also be about 15 months away from the next Bitcoin halving, a phase that has often marked major cycle changes rather than immediate price rallies.
10x Research founder Markus Thielen has even pointed to historical patterns where midterm years have seen sharp corrections in Bitcoin prices.
Still, Chairman of Fundstrat Thomas Lee remains optimistic. He believes Bitcoin could reach $200,000 in 2026, driven by growing institutional demand.
He also expects Ethereum to climb toward $9,000 by early 2026, supported by staking and real-world use cases like asset tokenization.
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